个别风险系统化与金融危机——来自虚拟经济学的解释

The Systematization of Individual Risk and Financial Crisis——An Explanation from Fictitious Economics

本文试图为金融危机提供一个"虚拟经济学"的解释,这个解释既包括了系统风险与金融危机的内在联系,也包括了个别风险与系统风险的内在联系。系统风险是个别风险社会化、系统化积聚和积累的结果,系统风险的积累则是金融危机爆发的前提;系统风险的积聚和扩散不但与放松金融监管直接相关,而且与虚拟经济的独特运行方式以及资本积累的特殊方式密切相关。正是美国的核心经济从制造业转变为金融与房地产服务业导致了美国经济运行方式的改变,而价值化积累则为金融资产的膨胀、流动性膨胀以及投机活动的猖獗铺平了道路,监管的放松既是这种经济运行方式改变的必然结果,也是促使系统风险不断积聚的催化剂。

This paper attempts to provide an explanation of ' fictitious economics ' for the financial crisis.This explanation includes not only the internal relation between systemic risk and financial crisis,but also the internal relation between individual risk and systemic risk.The systemic risk is the result of the social and systematic accumulation of individual risk,and the accumulation of systemic risk is the premise of the financial crisis.The accumulation and spread of financial crisis has not only direct relation with financial deregulation,but also close relation with the unique operation way of fictitious economy and the particular way of capital accumulation.The change of the US core economy from manufacture to finance and real estate service leads to the change in the US economy operating way.Valuelized accumulation provides the way for the expansion of speculation.Deregulation is both the result of the change in economy operating way and the catalyst of the accumulation of systemic risk.