20世纪10年代中国的工业生产:对《农商统计表》的评价与估计

An Estimate of Production Value in China Manufactring Industry in 1910s:an evaluation and revision of "Statistical Tables of Agriculture and Commerce"

20世纪10年代是近代中国工业开始形成的时期,对于这个时期的了解和研究是十分必要的和紧迫的。然而,由于各种原因,至今为止还没有比较系统和深入的研究,原因之一是资料尤其是统计资料的匮乏或者缺乏收集和整理。本文通过对这个时期唯一的比较系统和全面的统计资料《农商统计表》进行整理和修正,估算了这个时期工业生产的状况并做了初步的分析。由于这个统计资料质量十分低下,修正和估计工作也不得不带有较强的主观色彩,这必定影响分析结果,因此只能说是一种尝试,有待以后有更好的方法和资料进行印证。

Modern Chinese industry began to take its shape in the decade of the 1910s.It is quite necessary and very urgent to know and study this special period of history.But up to now,there is still an incredible lack of more systematic and in-depth study in this field due to various reasons.One major reason is the data problem,especially lack of statistical data or lack of effective practice in data collection and collation.Through collating and correcting the statistics included in 'The Statistical Tables of Agriculture and Commerce',which could be the only available statistics more systematically and comprehensively recorded to reflect the country's economic situation of that period,this article makes an initial analysis and estimates the condition of the country's industrial production during that period.However,it is inevitable that the job of correction and estimation based on these very low quality statistics could possibly be done under the sway of strong personal views,which might more or less affect the analysis results.Therefore,such an effort could only be defined as a certain kind of attempt,leaving much space for these analysis results to be further confirmed by better methods or more persuasive statistics someday in the future.