高盛的利益就是美国的利益——当前金融危机的根源

What Is Good for Goldman Sachs Is Good for America:The Origins of the Current Crisis

本文是罗伯特·布伦纳为西班牙文版《全球动荡经济学》所著序言的一部分。作者认为,当前危机的根源在于过去30年发达资本主义经济活力的持续下降,这一趋势跨越各个经济周期一直延续至今。资本积累与总需求长期衰弱的根源在于整个经济体系资本回报率严重而无可挽回的下降,其原因主要是全球制造业生产能力的持续过剩。作者在分析了实体经济利润率低迷与泡沫经济膨胀之间的相互作用之后认为,本次危机与新世纪初股市泡沫的破裂没有质的不同:实体经济利润率的低迷不仅未能在经济泡沫的拉动作用下而有所缓解,反而导致泡沫必然走向破裂,并反过来进一步恶化实体经济的颓势。"高盛的利益就是美国的利益"——这一标题刚好指出了近年来美国经济增长模式的实质。

This is a part of the prologue to the Spanish edition of the author's Economics of Global Turbulence.The author argues that the fundamental source of today's crisis is the steadily declining vitality of the advanced capitalist economies over three decades,business-cycle by business-cycle,right into the present.The long term slowdown of capital accumulation and aggregate demand growth rooted in a profound system-wide decline and failure in recovering the rate of return on capital,resulting largely from a persistent tendency of over-capacity in global manufacturing industries.Focusing on the interaction between the declining real economy and expanding bubble economy,the author argues that the current crisis is not qualitatively different from the burst of the bubble economy in the beginning of the new century:the downturn of the rate of profit in real economy has failed to be alleviated with the push of financial bubble and it has resulted in the burst of the bubble inevitably,and in turn the burst of the bubble would further worsen the real economy.'What is good for Glodman Sachs if good for America', which has exactly pointed out the nature of the growth pattern of the US economy in the recent years.