石油峰值、能源峰值与全球经济增长:全球能源与经济增长前景评估(2010～2100年)

Peak Oil,Peak Energy,and Global Economic Growth:Prospect for Global Energy and Economic Growth,2010-2100

近期研究表明,世界石油产量很可能已经达到或将达到顶峰,未来将趋于下降;世界煤炭和天然气的产量也有可能在未来二三十年越过顶峰。本文讨论从现在起至本世纪末全球能源供给和经济增长的情景。在考察了石油、天然气和煤的剩余资源以及核能、可再生能源和能源效率的发展潜力后,本文认为,即使采用比较乐观的假设,全球经济增长仍将趋于下降,并将于本世纪后期接近于停滞。

There is a growing body of evidence suggesting that world oil production is likely to have peaked.World coal and natural gas production may peak in the coming two to three decades.This paper evaluates the prospect for world energy and economic growth in the 21st century.Having examined the remaining recoverable resources of oil,natural gas,and coal and taken into account the future potentials of nuclear energy,renewable energies,and energy efficiency,this paper finds that global economic growth rates tend to decline in the coming decades and will approach stagnation during the second half of the 21st century.