开放条件下的宏观经济分析

Macroeconomic Analysis under the Condition of Open Economy

本文认为,支配国际经济关系的并不是主流经济学的资源禀赋,而是一种货币经济,这种货币经济的性质一方面是以技术的垄断为基础的竞争,另一方面是以利润率(货币利息率)为基础的货币金融体系或信用关系。在开放经济中,由于存在着两个(或多个)既相互独立又相互联系的货币金融体系,决定和支配国际贸易或国际经济关系的最重要因素,是各国独立的中央银行的货币政策。发展中国家的政府主导型经济的优势就在于,通过政府的信用增加货币供应量和吸引外资以提高名义增长率,从而加速技术引进和国际竞争力。但这种模式极易导致货币金融体系的不稳定,亚洲金融危机正是其突出的例证。

The thesis argued that it was not,as the mainstream economists think,the resource endowment of major economics that determined international economic relationships, but a kind of monetary economy,which on the one hand characterized by competition with monopoly of technology as the foundation,on the other hand by the financial system or credit relationship based on profit rate (monetary interest rate).In open economy,because there exists two (or a lot of) separate but connecting currency financial systems, the most important factor that determines and controll international trade or international economic relationship is the monetary policy of independent Central Banks.The advantage of government-leading economy of the developing countries is that credit of government can increase money supply and absorb the foreign capitals so as to raise the nominal growth rate,both accelerating technology import and international competition abilities.But this kind of mode is extremely apt to cause the instability of the financial system,Asian financial crisis as the outstanding illustration.