中国经济制度变迁与经济增长的计量研究

Econometric Method of China's Institutional Change and Economic Growth

本文利用"回归法"、"虚拟变量法"、"残值法"以及"结构法"等四种计量方法对中国经济制度变迁与经济增长之间的关系进行了计量分析。计量分析表明,"虚拟变量法"无法较好地反映中国制度变迁与经济增长之间的关系。其他三种方法则充分反映了各种经济制度改革对中国经济增长高速发展的作用。但计量结果同时表明,经济制度变革推动经济增长的作用已步入递减区域,简单的"非国有化"有弱化经济增长质量的作用,产业结构的调整以及核心技术的培育将取代制度变迁成为中国经济增长的核心支柱。

This paper analyzes the relationship between Chinese institutional change and economic growth by 'regression method','dummy variables method','residual sum method' and' structural method'.Econometric analysis demonstrates that all methods except ' dummy variables method'can reflect the relationship between Chinese institutional change and economic growth very well,but the function is decreasing,simple unstate-owning is weakening the quality of economic growth,the industrial adjustment should substitute for institutional change and become the pillar of Chinese economic growth.