SPA在矿工本质安全程度动态评价中的应用

Application of SPA in Dynamic Assessment for Miners Inherent Safety Degree

为了提高煤矿生产的本质安全性,需要对矿工本质安全程度进行准确测度。在本质安全人构建和评价相关研究的基础上,探讨了煤矿本质安全人的概念及内涵,从人员自身安全素质和人员与系统要素耦合2个角度建立评价指标。针对评价过程的不确定性和模糊性,采用集对理论对矿工现有本质安全程度进行分析,同时考虑本质安全程度随时间动态变化的特性,构建基于马尔可夫链的动态评价模型,最后通过一个实例说明该评价模型的可行性和有效性。

In order to improve the inherent safety of coal mines,itis needed to taking an accurate measurementforpersonal inherent safety degree.The conception of personal inherent safety is discussed based on previous research about assessment of inherent safety level and method for inherent safety human construction.The assessment indexes are built in terms of personal safety qualities and its couplingwith other system elements.The set pair analysis theory is adopted to analyze the current condition of personal inherent safety,since the evaluation process is uncertain and fuzzy;meanwhile a dynamic assessmentmodel based onMarkov is constructed,considering thatthe inherent safety degree varieswith the change of time;finally a case study is used to verify the model is feasible and effective.