基于组合预测方法与情景分析的广东省客运周转量预测

Forecast of Turnover Volume of Passengers Based on Combination Forecast Methods and Scenario Analysis in Guangdong Province

客运周转量是制定区域客运发展规划的重要依据,它与区域经济发展水平具有密切联系。以广东省较长一段时期内客运周转量的历史统计数据为基础,通过设定不同的经济发展情景,利用回归分析与马儿可夫组合预测法,对未来一段时期内广东省的客运周转量进行预测,通过误差分析表明预测结果具较高可信度。

The turnover volume of passengers is essential to formulating the development plan of regional passenger transportation.It has close links with the level of regional economic development.According to the past statistical data of the turnover volume of passengers in Guangdong Province,by setting different economic development situations,this paper uses the methods of Regression Analysis and Markov Forecast to predict the turnover volume of passengers in Guangdong Province in the future.The error analysis indicates that the predicted results have high credibility.