我国政府性债务的测算框架和风险评估研究

China's governmental debt measurement framework and risk assessment

近年来,关于我国政府性债务规模和风险大小的研究不断增多,但由于缺乏统一的测算框架和指标体系,学术界和相关部门得出的债务规模和风险状况差异较大,争议不断。为此,本文借鉴货币供应量的多层次统计方法,根据政府与债务偿还的紧密程度,分别构建了我国中央政府性债务和地方政府性债务的多层次测算体系。在此基础上,本文基于2010年的财政和经济数据,系统测算了我国政府性债务的规模及其风险大小。测算结果显示,我国最大口径的政府性债务规模为23.76万亿元,占2010年GDP的59%,接近负债率60%的国际警戒线。其中地方政府的负债率和债务率都要明显高于中央政府。与世界主要发达国家相比,我国的总体债务风险虽然不高,但地方政府性债务风险已处于较高水平。

Recently, studies on the scale and risk of China’s governmental debt have been increasing. However, because of a lack of unified measure framework and index system, researchers get different results, which causes controversy. This paper is trying to establish a new multilevel governmental debt measure framework, referring to multilevel measure framework of money supply, as well as the degree of the closeness between the debt and the government. Based on the new multilevel governmental debt measure framework, we estimated the governmental debt size and its risk using China’s financial and economic data in 2010. Results indicate that the governmental debt size is 2376 billion Yuan, amounting to 59% of GDP, which is close to the international warning line of 60%. We also find that local governments’ debt-to-GDP ratio and debt-to-revenue ratio are much higher than the central government. Finally, compared with several developed countries, China’s overall debt risk is relatively low, but local governmental debt risk is relatively high.