房地产价格波动的宏观经济影响及货币政策应对研究

Research on Effects of the Housing Price Fluctuation on Macro Economy and the Monetary Policy Response

本文主要探讨我国房地产价格波动对宏观经济的影响,及货币政策应对。本文基于拓展的IS曲线和Phillips曲线的研究发现,我国房地产价格波动对宏观经济的影响存在明显的阈值效应。当涨幅低于阈值时,房地产价格上涨能够刺激未来的总需求,并推高通胀预期;而当涨幅高于阈值时,房地产价格上涨会抑制需求,并对通胀造成下行压力。此外,本文构建SVAR模型检验了货币政策对房地产价格波动的反应。检验结果表明,尽管我国央行面对房地产价格波动会逆向调节利率水平,但与贷款和利率政策相比,流动性控制能够以相对小的产出损失抑制房地产价格的过快上涨。

This article mainly researches on the effects of the housing price fluctuation on macro economy,and its relation with monetary policy.Through the expanded IS-Philips curve,it found that there is an obvious threshold effect of the housing price on macro economy in China.That is,when the house price is lower than the threshold,it will stimulate aggregate demands as well as put upward pressure on CPI,and vice verse.Through the SAVR model of China's monetary policy function,it further pointed out that the central bank reversely adjusts the interest rate with the housing price fluctuation;however,in comparison with policies of loan and interest rate,rapid increase in housing price can be suppressed at less loss of output by means of liquidity control.