人民币汇率波动的宏观传导效应研究——基于GMM和情景模拟

Study on Macro-economic Conducting Effects of Renminbi Exchange Rate Fluctuation:Based on the GMM and Scene Simulation

本文基于一般均衡思想,构建系统联立方程模型,检验了人民币汇率升值对中国经济各部门的宏观传导效应;并通过情景模拟,分析了人民币不同波动幅度的影响差异。实证结果表明,人民币汇率升值对中国进、出口具有显著的负面冲击,损害了对外贸易部门的利益;但由于政府宏观调控政策的冲销,投资和消费水平不但没有受到抑制反而得到了不同程度的提升,因而对总体经济产出的影响非常有限。最后,本文根据分析结果给出了简要的政策建议。

Based on a general equilibrium idea,this paper applies simultaneous equations model to study the pass-through of Renminbi exchange rate and uses scene simulations to analyze the different effects of various fluctuation range of the exchange rate.The empirical results show that the appreciation of Renminbi has a limited impact on GDP.The reasons are as follows:although the revaluation of Renminbi is distinctly harmful to China' s imports and exports,investment and consumption are expanded rather than restrained because of the government's macroeconomic control.At last,the paper gives brief policy suggestions related to the analysis.