中国CO_2排放影响因素研究

Study on the CO_2 Emission and Its Influencing Factors in China

本文基于因素分解法的思路,构建CO2排放和能源消费分解扩展模型,深入挖潜影响我国CO2排放的各项驱动因素。同时,以2000-2009年间的统计数据为样本,从宏观层面探索碳排放总量与能源结构、能耗强度、产业结构、人口规模、经济增长、居民生活水平等重要国民经济发展指标间的驱动关系。结果显示:CO2排放量呈现逐年增长态势,而经济增长与能耗强度是其主要驱动因素;所构建模型对影响CO2排放有关因素的分解与量化效果较好,可为日后监控我国CO2排放水平并制定行之有效的节能减排政策提供决策支持。

Based on the methodology of factor decomposition,this paper has respectively set up for CO2 emission and energy consumption expansion models for driving factors in order to deeply excavate the potential driving factors influencing CO2 emission.Besides,using the statistical data per head from 2000 to 2009 as sample,we explore the driving relationship between carbon emissions and several significant national economic development indices such as energy structure,energy intensity,industrial structure,population size,economic development and residents living level from the macro level.The results show that CO2 emissions present an increasing trend year by year,while the economic growth and energy intensity are important factors driving CO2 emissions;the effect of established models that decomposite and measure the related factors influencing CO2 emissions is pretty good;they could,in the future,provide decision supports for monitoring CO2 emissions level and establishing effective policies of energy saving and emission reduction in China.