上海市闵行区碳排放测算研究

The Calculation of Carbon Emission in Minhang District,Shanghai

碳排放量是政府实施碳减排、评估区域低碳发展历程的量化指标。本文通过对闵行区现状能源使用情况分析,计算2005-2009年工业、民用、交通碳排放量,同时,根据闵行区未来经济、人口、能源消耗的增长情况,预测关键年份2015、2020年的工业、民用、交通运输的碳排放量和碳排放强度,为闵行制定碳减排措施提供借鉴和参考。研究结果显示:碳排放量与碳排放强度变化趋势相同,2007年相对较大,2008年又有回落,2009年略有上涨。工业碳排放量占总排放量的87%以上,民用、交通碳排放量占总碳排放量的比例较低。2015、2020年碳排放强度分别为1 417.6 kg/万元、1 217.7 kg/万元,不能达到国家控制要求。要使闵行区碳减排达到国家要求,有两种控制方法:一是保持规划的GDP增长率不变,碳排放量年下降3.24%以上,则2015年、2020年碳排放量可以分别控制在2 726.2万t、3 094.3万t以下,碳排放强度为1 359.9 kg/万元、1 153.4 kg/万元;二是保持碳排放量不变,"十二五"、"十三五"期间GDP增长率分别达到8.5%、6.6%以上。

Carbon emission is a kind of index for a government to implement the carbon reduction and assess their low-carbon development history.The carbon intensity was explicitly proposed to decrease 40%-45% in 2020 than 2005 by the Chinese government.In the paper,the carbon emissions of the industrial,civilian and the traffic from 2005 to 2009 was been calculated,which based on the analysis of the energy consumption.The total carbon emissions in 2009 were 20.4094 million tons,and the carbon intensity was 165.07 tons per million RMB.According to the increasing of economy,population and energy consumption of Minhang District,the carbon emissions and carbon intensity of the important year,2015 and 2020 was been predicted form three aspects of industrial,civilian and the traffic.The results showed that the carbon emissions intensity will reach 141.76 tons per million RMB in 2015,and 121.77 tons per million RMB in 2020,which can't meet the national requirements.When the carbon emissions decreased over 3.24% annually,the carbon emission should be controlled less than 27.262 million tons(the carbon intensity was 135.99 tons /million RMB) in 2015,30.943 million tons in 2020(the carbon intensity was 115.34 tons /million RMB).In this condition,the carbon intensity of Minhang District can meet the national requirements.Another condition is the GDP growth rate.If the GDP growth rate will keep above 8.5% in the Twelfth Five Year Plan period,and 6.6% in Thirteenth Five Year plan period,and the carbon emissions in 2020 will meet the national requirements.