系统动力学模型在环境规划预测中的应用——以辽宁省为例

Application of System Dynamics Model in Environmental Planning Forecasting-A Case of Liaoning Province

讨论了系统动力学方法的特征和建模原则、步骤,分析了系统动力学理论在环境规划预测中的适用性,建立了辽宁省社会、经济、环境预测的系统动力学仿真模型,从人口变化、社会经济发展、水土资源需求状况、污染物负荷等方面参照各种发展模式模拟预测了辽宁省"十二五"到2020年的发展趋势。根据各个方案的综合考虑,辽宁省的发展规模人口应该定位在4200-4300万人之间,国内生产总值在2015年应在30 000-40 000亿元左右,二氧化硫排放量2015年控制在95万t左右,2020年控制在40-50万t之间,化学需氧量排放量2015年和2020年控制在50-60万t左右。

This paper discusses the characteristics and modeling principles and steps of system dynamics,analyzes the applicability of system dynamics theory in environmental planning forecasting,and establishes the system dynamics simulation model in social,economic and environmental prediction of Liaoning Province.The model forecasts the development tendency of Liaoning Province from 2010 to 2020 through the population changes,socio-economic development,land and water resources demand conditions,pollutant loads,etc.According to the various options to consider,the development of Liaoning province population should be positioned in 42-43 million at 2015,Gross Domestic Product should be RMB 3000-4000 billion;Sulfur Dioxide emission control in 2015 will be 950 thousand tons,in 2020 between 400 and 500 thousand tons,between 2015 and 2020,chemical Oxygen demand emission control between 0.50 and 0.60 million tons.