房地产价格波动对宏观经济波动的微观作用机制探究

Research of the Microscopic Mechanism of House Price Change on Macroeconomic Fluctuation

本文将消费者投资决策引入RBC模型来分析房地产价格波动对宏观经济波动的作用机制,并使用VAR模型对该作用机制进行实证检验。本文的研究表明,当期宏观经济波动不仅取决于滞后一期的宏观经济波动,还取决于当期与滞后两期的房地产价格;检验结果进一步表明,房地产价格的正向冲击将致使消费者减少消费、增加投资,对GDP具有快速拉升作用,但是该拉升作用并不具有持续性,且在3年内波动会缓慢递减至零。

By introducing consumers' investment decision into RBC theory, the microscopic mechanism of house price change on macroeconomic fluctuations has been found that the current macroeconomic fluctuation depends not only on its lag phase, but also on the current and two lags of house price. Furthermore, this mechanism passes empirical test conducted by VAR model as well, and presents effective test results: the positive fluctuation of house price will drag GDP to a substantial degree in a short time, but the drag isn't continuous and reduce to zero gradually within three years.