自选择与农村剩余劳动力非农就业的地区收入差异——兼论刘易斯转折点是否到来

Self-selection and Regional Employment Income Differentials of Rural Surplus Labor in China: With Reference to the Coming of Lewis Turning Point

本文运用2008年农村住户调查数据,分析农村中老年剩余劳动力本地就业和外出就业的影响因素,并在考虑就业区域选择偏差的基础上,分析农民在不同地域就业的收入差异。结果表明,年龄、教育、健康、培训、以前的迁移经历等因素会影响农民外出就业。考虑就业区域的选择偏差和劳动者的不可观测特征后,外出就业(无论是本省流动还是跨省流动)的收入显著高于在本地就业的收入,这说明对于低技能的农村中老年劳动力来说,外出就业仍可获得可观的收益,但一些制度约束使得他们的外出意愿下降。结合近年来"民工荒"和一些农民工返乡现象,以及刘易斯转折点是否到来的讨论,论文给出政策含义。

Using the 2008 Rural Household Survey Data, this paper explores the factors influencing Chinese middle and old age rural surplus labors’ choice between local employment and migration employment, and analyzes the income differential of different regional employment choice on the basis of selection bias. The results indicate that age, education, health, training and previous migration experience all impact their migration decision. Considering selection bias and un-observed personal characteristics, the income of migrant is much higher than that of local workers. Therefore, for the unskilled aged labors, migration can still bring forth considerable benefits, however, some institutional barriers restricts their migration willingness. Associated with the evidences of peasant worker shortage, return migration and the discussion of Lewis turning point, the paper finally gives some policy implications.