房地产市场反周期宏观调控政策绩效的微观分析

Micro Analysis on Countercyclical Macro-regulation Policy Performance in Housing Market

货币或者财政政策调控是世界各国保证房地产市场健康发展普遍采用的手段,宏观调控对市场的影响自然成为所有市场参与者及学术界关心的问题。本文构建了居民基于非住房消费、住房消费的二元效用函数,居民投资选择包括无风险投资、住房投资与金融投资,理性居民通过效用最大化来应对房地产税收、首付贷款比例和贷款利率等宏观调控政策。本文结合金融市场、房地产市场的参数校准,对政府可能采用的政策组合进行了数值模拟分析。数值模拟分析表明,在给定参数下居民对贷款首付比例的政策变化最为敏感,其次为利率政策、税收政策。本研究结果为政府的反周期房地产政策调控提供了理论依据,能够有效降低政策制定成本。

Monetary or fiscal policy is commonly used for government to stabilize the housing market across countries all over the world,and its performance is concerned about by all the market participants and academics. The paper builds resident's utility function based on non-housing and housing consumption,resident makes choices among risk-free investment,housing and financial investment. Rational resident maximize his utility to deal with macro-regulations,such as real estate taxes,down payment loan ratio and mortgage rates. The paper calibrates parameters of expectations on financial markets and housing market,and makes a numerical simulation of possible policy intervention on housing market. Numerical analysis shows that residents response to the proportion of mortgage loans most sensitively. The results provide a theoretical basis for the government's countercyclical policy of regulation on housing market,and also reduce costs of policy making.