个人住房贷款行为与房贷调控的有效性分析

Individual Housing Loan Decision and Mortgage Regulation Effectiveness

本文利用成都市房地产交易的微观数据(2004—2006),实证检验了我国房地产信贷政策的变化对微观个体住房贷款决策行为的影响效果。我们发现,地方购房者的贷款决策对中央利率调控有明显反应。实证结果显示:当长期贷款利率升幅较短期贷款利率升幅高0.1百分点时,贷款者选择短期贷款的概率增加8.4个百分点;而且利用商业住房贷款利率和公积金贷款利率变动差异的"自然实验",我们有效控制了可能由宏观政策内生性产生的计量问题,从微观角度为长、短期利率政策的有效性提供了更可靠的实证检验。此外,我们还发现首付比例政策并没有得到地方银行的严格实施。因此,文章建议政府进一步重视利率政策对房地产市场的调整,而包括首付比例等相关政策的实施需加强对地方执行部门监管的力度。

Using transaction-level data on Chengdu housing market (2004—2006),we provide evidence on how central monetary policies (mortgage rates in particular) have affected the individual decision on the regional housing market of China. Our empirical study demonstrates that the mortgage rate policy appeared to be much more effective. The evidences show that the adjustments of long-term mortgage rate and short-term mortgage rate have effectively impacted individual housing buyers' loan decision:when the long-term mortgage rate increases by 0.1 percent point relative to the short-term mortgage rate,the probability of a buyer to choose short-term mortgage loan increases by 8.4 percent. In order to address the potential endogeneity problem in our estimation,we utilize a natural experiment. In particular,we identify the different patterns of mortgage rates policy on commercial mortgage and on collective housing fund loan and use the later as a control group. We also find down payment rate has not been strictly implementation by local banks.