所有制结构、增长差异与地区差距:历史因素影响了增长轨迹吗?

Ownership Structure,Growth Difference and Regional Disparity:Does History Affect the Track of Growth?

什么因素导致了中国各地区增长轨迹的差异和经济差距的形成?本文从所有制结构的角度入手考察历史因素对地区增长轨迹的影响。研究发现,在向市场化转型的过程中,地区的所有制结构禀赋有可能令初始国有比重较高的地区陷入历史锁定效应,而令初始国有比重较低的地区快速发展,出现极化效应并导致地区差距的不断扩大。利用中国各省(1985—2008)的数据进行经验研究后发现,初始的国有比重越高,则后续年份的平均增长率越低,国有比重的下降显著地促进了地区经济增长。本文指出,地区间的"经济收敛"需要"所有制结构的收敛"。中西部地区过高的国有比重既是"劣势"又是"优势",通过所有制结构的转变可以让"劣势"变为"优势",实现经济上的追赶。

What factors have led to the China's regional growth differences and regional disparities? From the perspective of ownership structure,we examine the historical factors' impact on the regional growth trajectory.We find that,in the process of transition,the regional ownership structure plays a key role in the regional economic growth.Regions with high proportion of initial state-owned economy may lock into 'historical lock-in effect',but that regions with low proportion of initial state-owned economy may grow rapidly.Using China's provincial data(1985—2008),we find that the higher the proportion of initial state-owned economy,the lower the average growth rate of subsequent years.The decreasing of state-owned economy proportion promote regional economic growth significantly.This paper points out that inter-regional 'economic convergence' need 'the convergence of the ownership structure'.High proportion of state-owned economy in middle and west regions is of both 'disadvantage' and 'advantage',we can change 'disadvantage' into 'advantage' through changes in ownership structure and achieve economic catch up.