基于弹性系数的大兴区环境-经济预警研究

Elastic Coefficient-Based Warning System for the Environment-economic System of Daxing District

在环境-经济系统中,选择弹性系数对区域节能减排做预警研究,构建基于弹性系数的区域环境-经济预警系统。将该预警系统应用于实际案例中,计算了符合北京市大兴区节能减排目标要求的弹性系数区间,对区域未来的环境-经济状况进行预测和预警。在惯性发展情景下,大兴区2010年和2020年环境-经济系统处于临界状态,节能减排达标尚存在一定困难,其中SO2、COD排放是区域环境-经济安全的最大影响因素。

In the environment-economic system,elastic coefficient was selected for early warning of energy saving and emission reduction,and an elastic coefficient-based warning system was set up.In the example of Daxing district of Beijing,the extent of elastic coefficient was calculated based on the request of saving and reduction of the district.In the scenario of inertial development,the environment-economic system of Daxing would be in critical state in 2010 and 2020.It would be difficult to meet the saving and reduction goal,and SO2 and COD emission would be the biggest factor that threatens the security of the district.