基于面板数据对工业化与城市化影响下经济增长与环境质量的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of the Economic Growth and Environmental Quality Under the Influence of Industrialization and Urbanization:Based on Panel Data

本文研究我国经济增长的动力——工业化和城市化对环境质量的影响,以及环境保护对经济增长的影响;根据以往经验,通过建立计量模型和统计测度,对1999至2008年我国经济增长、工业化水平、城市化水平与环境污染物排放量之间的数量关系进行研究,论证在此期间我国经济总量增长和结构效应环境库兹涅茨曲线的基本特征。研究发现工业烟尘和工业粉尘排放量的GDP总量曲线具有倒U型特征,属于典型的环境库兹涅茨曲线形状,工业废水的GDP总量环境库兹涅茨曲线具有N型特征,SO_2的GDP总量曲线为线性递增;工业废水和SO_2的工业化水平曲线为N型,工业烟尘的工业化水平曲线为线性递增;工业废水、工业SO_2和工业粉尘的城市化水平曲线分别为倒N型、N型和U型。结合城乡一体化改革,考虑工业化和城市化结构效应的环境库兹涅茨曲线研究比仅考虑经济总量增长的传统环境库兹涅茨曲线研究更全面,对我国处理好经济发展和环境质量之间的关系具有重要的现实意义。

The paper does research on China's economic growth forces—industrialization and urbanization on environmental quality, and on the influence of environmental protection on economic growth.According to the experience in the past,by econometric model and statistics,the paper measures the basic characteristics of the overall economic growth and Kuznets Curve of the structure effect of China from 1995 to 2008.We found the total GDP curve of industrial smoke and industrial dust emissions has the characteristics of inverted U-curve,which is the typical shape of environmental Kuznets curve.Environmental Kuznets curve of the total GDP of industrial wastewater has N-type curve characteristics,and the sulfur dioxide curve is linear increasing.The industrialization level curves of industrial waste water and sulfur dioxide are N-type curve.The industrial smoke industrialization curve is linear increasing.The urbanization level curves of industrial waste water,industrial sulfur dioxide and industrial dust are inverted curve of N-type,N-type and U -type,respectively.Considering the urban and rural reform and the research on Kutnets curve of structural effects of industrialization and urbanization is more meaningful than merely considering the traditional environmental Kuznets curve of overall economic growth,and it will be significant to deal with the relationship between China's economic development and environmental quality.