基于SD模型的昆明市水资源承载力研究

Study on Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Kunming City Based on SD Model

基于水资源承载力理论,运用系统动力学(SD)模型,对2010-2020年昆明市水资源承载力进行了现状延续情景、提高水资源开发利用率情景、节水对策情景、综合对策情景等四种情景模拟。结果表明,水资源在2009-2020年能较好的支撑昆明市社会经济的高速发展和快速的城市化进程;进一步分析表明优化昆明市产业结构、提高水资源开发利用率、节水等综合对策是提高昆明市水资源承载力的最优对策。

Based on the water resources carrying capacity theory and system dynamics(SD)principle,four scenarios which are remaining current water utilization scenario,improving the utilization of water resource scenario,water conservation strategy scenario,and comprehensive strategy scenario are set up.The results show that water resources of Kunming can well support the high-speed development of social economy and rapid urbanization.Further analysis shows the comprehensive strategy,including optimization and adjustment of industrial structure,improving the utilization of water resources,and water conservation are the optimal strategy to improve the water resources carrying capacity of Kunming.