基于AHP和熵权的跨界突发性大气环境风险源模糊综合评价

Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation of Cross-border Atmospheric Environment Risk Source Based on Entropy and AHP

提高跨界突发性大气环境风险源分级评价结果的客观性、准确性,可以对下一步合理分配有限的人力、物力和信息资源,对风险源进行分级实时监控提供有力依据。本文结合层次分析法(AHP)、熵和模糊数学方法对跨界突发性大气环境风险源进行风险评估。该方法首先通过构造层次分析法中的判断矩阵,得到主观权值;再利用熵权法对主观权值进行修正,得到综合权值;最后运用模糊综合评价的方法对跨界突发性大气环境风险源危害程度进行综合评估,得到跨界突发性大气环境风险源的风险等级。采用熵权来调整主观赋权法给出的权重系数,使评价结果更加客观、科学、合理。运用此法对大连市T化学有限公司30 t液氯储罐、X化工厂8 t液氯储罐和S化工厂200 t液氨储罐3个潜在跨界大气环境风险源以瞬时爆炸事故排放情形进行风险评价,确定了其风险等级。

Improving the objectivity and the veracity of classification evaluation results of cross-border emergent atmospheric environment risk sources is available for a rational allocation of limited human,material and information resources next,and is also available for reference to classified monitor environment risk sources in real time.Combining the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP),the entropy with the fuzzy mathematics,a method of cross-border emergent atmospheric environment risk sources synthetic evaluation is proposed.At first the subjective weights are obtained by constructing the judgment matrix of AHP;then by means of the entropy weight the subjective weights is amended,and the synthetic weights are formed;at last the extend of harm from the atomspheric environmental risk sources is evaluated synthetically by the fuzzy synthetic evaluation method and the risk levels of cross-border emergent atmospheric environment risk sources are obtained.In order to make the result of evaluation more objective,scientific and reasonable,the entropy weight is put forward to adjust the weight,which is given by subjective method.The method has been used to evaluate the risk grades for three examples,a 30-tonne liquid chlorine storage tank from T Chemical Co.Ltd,an 8-tonne liquid chlorine storage tank from X Chemistry plant and an 200-tonne liquid ammonia storage tank from S Chemistry plant in Dalian City,where the incident considered is an instant explosion.