基于耕地压力指数的山东省粮食安全状况研究

Grain Security of Basic Cropland Pressure Index in Shandong Province

运用Excel软件,在计算山东省改革开放以来耕地、人口、粮食动态变化的基础上,分析了最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数的变化特点;运用预测理论对未来15年耕地、人口、粮食、最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数进行了预测。研究结果显示:1978年以来,虽然山东省人均耕地面积持续减少,但由于耕地生产率不断提高,粮食总产量和人均占有量却在持续增加,耕地压力指数呈现降低的趋势。未来15年最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数将进一步降低。可见,依靠增加投入和科技进步从而不断提高耕地生产率,是减轻耕地压力、保证粮食安全的根本途径。

By using Excel and based on the investigation on the dynamic changes in arable land,population and crops in Shandong Province since 1975,this article further analyzes the characteristics of minimum cropland acreage per capita and cropland pressure index.It also provides statistical prospects for population,crops,minimum cropland acreage per capita and cropland pressure index in the future 15 years according to the theory of prediction.The conclusions are as followings.First,since 1978,regardless of the decrease of cropland acreage per capita,grain output and per capita quota in Shandong Province has been steadily increasing while cropland pressure index showed a declining trend.This is mostly because the rise of cropland productivity.Second,in the future 15 years,it is highly possible that minimum cropland acreage per capita and cropland pressure index will continue to decline.The article draws the conclusion that the basic approach to alleviating cropland pressure and ensuring food security is to develop cropland productivity by increasing investment and enhancing technological innovation.