中国耕地变化模式的资源经济学分析

Dynamic Change Patterns of Farmland in China from Perspective of Resource Economics

本研究旨在引入灰色系统关联分析法和高等计量经济学建模思想,结合经济学和土地学等相关学科知识,从资源经济学的角度揭示我国耕地动态变化过程,促进我国耕地可持续利用理论的完善与发展。结果表明:①在中、短时间尺度内社会经济发展因子对耕地变化起着重要的影响作用,主驱动因子有GDP、人均GDP、城市化水平和国家宏观政策;②耕地面积与GDP、城市化水平呈负相关,与人均GDP呈正相关;③我国耕地制度安排存在缺陷,是造成我国城市化蔓延占耕地的最直接原因;④我国应不断完善土地制度安排,同时,应不断促进社会经济发展技术水平的提高和加强政府导向,转变经济发展方式,从而减少社会经济发展对耕地的非科学侵占。

Combined with economics model and land sciences theory,this study aims to disclose the dynamic change of farmland in China from perspective of resource economics by introducing gray correlation analysis model and higher econometrics theory.Results show that:①social-economic factors are key contributors to environmental change in process of farmland change,and the main driving factors are GDP,GDP per capita,urbanization and macro-policy of short-term and medium-term effects;②negative correlation exists between farmland area and urbanization/GDP,and positive correlation exists between farmland area and GDP per capita;③incomplete farmland institution arrangement directly leads to irrational loss of farmland in urbanization,and further protection of farmland relys on effective implementation of perfect institution arrangement,improvement of technology and enforcement of government restrictions,and changing economic development patterns for sustainable development of agriculture.