基于LMDI的上海市能源消费碳排放实证分析

Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index Model and the Carbon Emission Mechanism of Energy Sector in Shanghai

能源利用不仅为经济活动提供动力还大量排放二氧化碳。本文建立上海能源消费碳排放的LMDI分解模型,从经济规模、产业结构、能源强度和产业碳排放系数四个影响因素着手,实证研究了1995-2005上海分三次产业的能源消费碳排放变化机理。研究表明:经济快速增长是上海碳排放增加的主导因素,能源强度下降是抑制碳排放增长的重要因素。产业结构、能源结构优化有利于控制碳排放,而重工业化、能源结构高碳化会增加碳排放。基于实证结果和上海市情,本文最后就上海未来控制碳排放提出相关的政策建议。

Energy use not provides only power for the economy,but also emits lots of carbon dioxide.The paper builds a Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)model to study the carbon emission mechanism of energy sector in Shanghai City between 1995 and 2005.From the perspectives of economic scale,industrial structure,energy intensity and industry carbon emission coefficient,the study shows: rapid economic growth dominates the carbon accumulation while decreasing energy intensity reduces the carbon emission significantly.The optimization of industrial structure and energy structure will better control the carbon emission,while industrialization and using more fossil energy will increase the carbon emission.Based on empirical result and actual conditions,the paper finally gives some suggestions on carbon reduction of Shanghai in future.