试析当前美国经济走势

Current US Economic Trend

美国经济形势自去年第４季度开始趋于严峻，经济增速大幅下降，股市大跌，消费者信心受重挫；制造业濒临衰退，高新技术产业持续不振；失业率、通胀率有所上升等。但由于美经济实力雄厚，基础条件较好，市场对外资吸引力不减；新经济仍有生命力；美在经济全球化中处于有利地位；世界石油价格回落；美联储的调控渐起作用；布什政府出台一系列有利于经济恢复和发展的政策等，美国经济出现衰退的可能性不大。

Since the last season of 2000, American economic situation has become grim. The economic growth rate decreased substantially; the stock market dived violently; the consumer's confidence index fell greatly; the manufacturing industry was at the brink of decline; the hi-tech industry was sluggish; the rates of unemployment and inflation increased, etc. However, there are little probabilities that American economy will plunge into a depression because of the following facts: The United States has an abundant economic force and better fundamental economic conditions; the United States is still attractive to foreign funds; American new economy still has vitality; the USA is at an vantage point in the globalization tide; the world petroleum price is falling after a rise; the Federal Reserve's macro-economic regulation measures are gradually taking effect; the Bush Administration's economic policy will also help promote the economic recovery.