基于VAR模型的煤炭资源与经济增长动态关系实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Relationship between Coal Resources and Economic Growth Based on VAR Model

选用1982-2010年统计数据,以湖南省为例对煤炭产量、煤炭消费量与经济增长之间的动态关系进行了实证检验。研究结果显示:从长期来看,三者之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,经济增长对煤炭产量和煤炭消费量具有单向格兰杰因果关系;从短期来看,经济增长在从短期波动向长期均衡发展过程中受到煤炭产量和煤炭消费量的影响,其中滞后二期的煤炭消费量调整力度更明显;另外,经济增长对煤炭产量产生正向的冲击响应,而对煤炭消费量产生负向的冲击响应,而且经济增长对煤炭产量和煤炭消费量的贡献率均较显著,因此通过加快经济增长对维持煤炭供需平衡具有重要的现实意义。

The interactive relationship of the coal production,coal consumption and economy growth is analyzed based on the statistics from 1982 to 2006 of Hunan Province.The results show that there exists a long-term equilibrium relationship among them.The economy growth is a Granger reason to coal production and consumption.In the short run,the economic growth is effected by the coal production and consumption in its development process from short-term fluctuation to long-term equilibrium.It can be discovered that coal production and consumption has a greater response to the change of GDP from the result of variance decomposition.So it is of great practical significance to speed up economic growth to promote the steady and rapid development of the coal resources.