基于灰色预测模型对白城市未来十年降水量的预测

Rainfall Prediction of Baicheng City in Next Decade Based on Gray Forecast Model

降雨量是农业生产的一个重要影响因子,如何预测降雨量成为指导农业生产最重要的一项科技指标.本文以吉林省白城市2000-2011年的降雨量数据为研究对象,应用不同维数的灰色预测GM(1,1)新陈代谢模型,对白城市今后十年降雨量进行预测,可以为有关部门防灾减灾工作提供科学依据.

Rainfall is an important factor in agricultural production,how to forecast rainfall has become a central technology index for guiding agriculture production. This paper took the rainfall data of 2000- 2011 in Baicheng City as the study object,used gray GM( 1,1) of different dimensions to forecast metabolism models,for the purpose of offering scientific bases to the department of prevention and reduction of natural disasters.