基于KP模型的滑坡破坏概率

The K-P method based failure probability calculation on landslides

本文提出了将滑坡稳定性分析(K法)与滑坡发育率(P法)相结合的KP模型计算滑坡破坏概率的方法。其中,稳定性分析采用滑坡常规方法计算,发育率采用赋值定量及专家系统方法获取。最后通过概率统计模型,计算滑坡破坏概率。该方法避免了仅仅依靠人为随机调整滑坡的物理力学参数,而忽略地表宏观变形特征获取滑坡破坏概率。重点体现了以地表宏观变形为基础,定量计算为参考,综合评判为结果的滑坡破坏概率。

The K-P method which combined with the landslide stability analysis method( K value method) and the landslide development rate method( P value method),was proposed in this paper for calculation of failure probability on landslides by means of the probability method. landslide development method( P value method) was determined by experimental and expert system approach while the K was determined by The limit equilibrium method of landslide stability analysis. the landslide failure probability can be determined by this method manifested the integrate identification with not only the deformation character on the surface but also quantitative calculation of landslides.