论路径依赖分析框架

On Framework of Path-Dependent Analysis

本文认为：路径依赖分析框架是利用动态非线性随机模型来分析路径依赖现象的理论方法，被新制度经济学广泛应用于技术变迁路径、企业制度变迁路径和制度变迁路径的分析之中，成为将收益递增、多重均衡、外部偶然冲突等范畴纳入制度分析的一个重要方法；但路径依赖分析框架忽视了自然系统与社会系统的差别，过分夸大了正反馈机制＂在制度变迁中的作用，从而无法正确处理社会系统中的各种利益冲突对制度变迁主导性的影响。

Abstract Framework of path-dependent analysis is a method of using non-linear dynamic randomization to analyze the phenomenon of path-dependence. Its widespread application is found in transition path of technique, transition path of enterprise system, and transition path of system by the new system economics. It has now become an important means of placing categories such as progressive increase of profits, multi-layer balance, external chance conflicts into system analysis.However, framework of path-dependent analysis is not without fault. It neglects the differences between the natural system and the social system at it tends to over-emphasize the function of “mechanics of positive backwash' in transition of the system. Therefore, it is unable to handle properly the principal influence of various conflicts of interests in the social system on system transition. For the same reason, it is unable to really combine contingency and inevitability.