生育率下降与经济发展内生性要素的形成──兼论中国人力资本投资供给的制度性短缺

Fertility Decline and the Shaping of the Endogenous Force of Economic Development

贝克尔、墨菲和塔玛拉在１９９０年发表的题为“人力资本、生育率与经济增长”的论文中建立了一个“两部门模型”，提出低生育率和较高的人力资本积累率是摆脱马尔萨斯均衡陷阱、进入经济持续发展轨道的必要条件的论断。我国人口的生育率在过去的２０多年中经历了迅速的转变，并达到了较低的水平，但是由于我国的教育，特别是高等教育制度的改革相对落后，造成了我国人力资本投资供给的制度性障碍，进而使我国生育率下降与经济发展，内生性变量──人力资本的积累之词的联系出现了断裂。因此，彻底消除我国人力资本投资的制度性障碍，才能从根本上奠定我国经济持续发展的人才基础和人口环境。

Low fertility and high human capital are taken by some Western economists as necessary conditions to bring about a sustained economic growth. While fertility in China has experienced a rapid transition over the past 20 years, the lag-behind education system reform has created an institutional obstacle to supply of investment in human capital in China, thus breaking the relations between the fertility decline and the endogenous vari- able of economic development-human capital. Removing the institutional obstacle to investment in human capital becomes fundamentally important to a sustained economic growth in China.