中国零人口增长问题的深入思考

Zero Population Growth in China: Some Fundamental Considerations

本文对零人口增长概念及零人口增长与总和生育率、出生预期寿命的关系进行深入探讨。通过对２１世纪中国人口的长期发展过程和趋势的模拟分析，提出我国人口发展过程中零人口增长点、零人口增长域的选择时机以及相应生育政策调整的时间选择；讨论实现零人口增长后仍然存在的人口问题；阐明零人口增长并非是中国人口问题的终结。

Based on a discussion of the concept of zero population growth (ZPG) and the relations between ZPG and the total fertility rate and the life expectancy at birth, a simulation of the long--term trends in the development of China's population in the 21st century is conducted in this paper, proposing choices of timing of ZPG and adjustment of fertility policy. The post-ZPG phase will still see population problems,and ZPG is not an end to the population problems in China.