统计推理谬误的类型与成因分析

Types of Statistical Reasoning Errors and The Analysis of Causes

统计推理是一种应用相当广泛的推理，在进行统计推理时出现谬误也是常有的现象。这些谬误或者是由于前提不真实，即收集的统计数据不能真实地反映总体的属性；或者是由于分析不合理，即对统计数据的整理不能合理地推出一般结论。其产生的原因，有的来自于外界干扰，但更主要的则来自于主观偏见──主观主义和形而上学的认识方法。统计谬误妨碍了人们对客观事物的正确认识，因此，需要用科学的态度来对它进行分析。

Statistical reasoning is widely employed and mistakes tend to occur in the process of reasoning. These mistakes are committed either due to false premises-the statistical data collected fail to reflect the overall characterics, or as a result of improper analysis-the treatment of these data does not bring a general conclusion. All this results from outside disturbances and in particular from subjectivism and prefudices-cognitive mentods of subjectivism and metaphysics. Mistakes of this sort hinder people from appreciating reality correctly and so must be analyzed in scientific manner.