基于事故树的公路路段交通安全评价方法

Traffic Safety Evaluation Method for Highway Section Based on Fault Tree

针对现有公路路段交通安全评价方法无法评价而导致安全程度下降的主要原因或因评价指标权重很难确定的缺点,利用事故树分析方法建立了公路路段交通安全评价指标确定方法,提出事故树的修正结构重要度的概念,并以其为基础建立了评价指标权重确定方法和综合评价模型方法。以平曲线路段为例对其进行了说明,最后选取实际公路路段数据对所设计方法进行了验证,结果表明方法不仅可以评价出路段的整体安全程度,而且能够确定出导致路段安全程度下降的主要原因。

In order to estimate the main reasons resulting in traffic safety decreasing of highway section,and give proper evaluation index weights,a traffic safety evaluation method for highway section was designed based on fault tree theory.The established method of fault tree,evaluation index and index weight determining method and comprehensive evaluation model were explained using the horizontal curve section as example.The proposed method was validated by true data of highway section.The result shows the proposed method not only can evaluate the overall safety of highway section,but also to determine main reasons resulting in traffic safety decreasing of highway section.