休谟问题与动态大弃赌定理

Hume's problem and dynamic Dutch Book theorem

当代概率归纳逻辑的一个重要学派即主观主义或私人主义对待休谟问亦即归纳合理性问题的态度,密切地依赖于他们提出的大弃赌定理.大弃赌定理分为静态的和动态的.本文着重讨论和分析动态大弃赌定理与休谟问题之间的逻辑关系,并且基本接受克里斯坦森的看法即;动态大弃赌由于其历时性的特征而使动态大弃赌定理不能成为归纳合理性的依据,因此主观主义对休谟问题的解决是不成功的.本文最后简单提及另外一些有关解决休谟问题的思路.

The solution of Hume's problem by the subjective or personalistic theory of probability induction relies heavily on Dutch Book theorem, which is divided into two parts, static and dynamic. This paper focuses on the analysis and discussion of the logical relation between the dynamic Dutch Book theorem and Hume' s problem. The author basically accepts David Christensen's point of view that the dynamic Dutch Book theorem,with its diachronic features, cannot afford a sound basis for the justification of induction. The subjective approach towards the solution of Hume's problem is therefore untenable. The paper also proposes some other possible approaches towards the solution of Hume's problem.