改革开放以来中国经济发展及1997——2010年经济发展预测(一)

Chinese Economic Development Since the Reform and Open to the Outside World & Economic Development Prediction From 1997 to 2010(1)

客观分析改革开放18年来中国经济发展的基本特征,综合运用长期宏观经济总量预测模型,地区宏观经济预测模型、人口—经济协调发展预测模型和工业所有制结构演化预测模型等,定量预测中国1997—2010年经济与人口发展的主要指标。预测结果表明,未来14年中国人口总量将在增长速度递减情形下递增,经济发展将迎来又一高峰:市场经济体制基本形成并步入规范化运行轨道,国有企业及其与之配套的其他改革基本完成,所有制结构、产业结构较大变化;地区经济发展不平衡的矛盾不会根本改变,但沿海与内地经济相对差距较大的速度将缩小和减缓。

According to the objective analysis of the basic characteristics of domestic economy development sincethe reform and open to the outside world, the comprehensive application of long-term macroeconomic total output calculation model, the regional macroeconomic calculation model, coordinated population-economy development calculation model and industrial ownership structure evolution calculation model, etc. the author quantitatively forecasts the main indexes of economy and population development from 1997 to 2010 in China. The result of the forecast shows the total population number will increase progressively under the circumstance of that the population growth speed decreases progressively in the next 14 years in China, economic development will welcome another peak, marketized economic system will be formed and will operate in a standardized manner, the reform of the state-owned enterprises and other reforms will be accomplished on the while, ownership structure, industrial structure will be changed greatly, the contradiction of unbalanced regional economic development will not be changed thoroughly, yet the speed of comparative economic disparity between coastal and inland areas will be decreased.