中东社会转型发展论

TX ON TRANSFORMATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE MIDDLE EASTERN SOCIETY

对于中东社会发展阶段问题，如果没有正确的主体自我定位，或者主体自我定位不准确、不完整，那么，在中东现代化建设中就会发生实质性的偏差和失误，就会丧失机遇。在即将迈入２１世纪的时候，在变革的浪潮以前所未有的速度席卷中东之时，人们都在密切注视着时代潮流及其...

Abstract The Middle Eastern society is now in a period of transformation and development as manifested in the following five aspects:the change from a centralized power to democratic politics;the development from a society of religious ethics to one of principle of laws;the change from a model of state capitalism to one of market economy;the change from an inward looking economy with government participation to an outward looking ceonomy dominated by private enterprises;and the development from the traditional culture to a modern culture.There are seven outstanding features:the interwoving of development and transformation;the unevenness;the duality,transitionality and instability;the ‘oil charactor’;the colour of Islam;and the dual roles played both by government and market.There are seven major trends in future social development in the Middle East: the unevenness will continue to expand ;the democratic politics will become the dominant tide;rule of laws will gradually replace rule by men ;the regulation and control by the government will turn to the regulation by the market;there will be a higher level of opening to the outside world;a modern Islamic culture will be gradually established;and the transitionality and instability will remain.