城市外来流动人口的滞留与更替——以上海市为例

Stay and Replacement of the Urban Non-native Floating Population: The Case of Shanghai

以上海市1993年和1988年流动人口抽样调查有关数据作比较分析,可以发现,城市外来流动人口的平均滞留时间趋于缩短,更替强度趋于增强。笔者认为,不同滞留时间的流入人口,都是不断更替的人口群体;乡—城流动人口的总体归宿趋向是城市化,但这并不意味城市流入人口都将以目前所流入的城市为永久居留的归宿;大量跨区域乡—城流动人口都将在流返流出地以后继续完成其城镇化过程。城市外来流动人口很大程度上是一个不断新老更替而“永远年轻”的人口群体;人口有序流动是解决中国人口问题的一大出路;中国人口变动的活力将进一步体现于新世纪的人口流动。

An analysis using data from the 1988 and 1993 floating population sample survey in Shanghai reveals that the mean duration of stay of the non-native floating population tends to be shortening and the replacement intensity to be intensifying. The migrants of different durations of stay are characterized by constant replacement, but rural-to-urban migrants will be generally urbanized (become permanent urban residents). The urban non-native floating population keeps 'always young'by its constant new-old replacement, and the changing vigor of the Chinese population will be further manifested in population floating in the coming century.