摘要
戈尔巴乔夫执政后即开始调整苏联的对内对外战略,至苏共二十七大,已初步形成了一套较完整的新的对美政策。里根政府第二任后,也在调整对外政策,至里根今年3月14日发表对外政策咨文,业已基本定出一条目标更庞大、态度更强硬的对苏政策。戈尔巴乔夫和里根去年儿月在日内瓦会晤后,两国关系所以没有出现新的缓和,反而一度出现冲突迭起的僵持局面,显系双方推行调整后政策的结果,当前苏美争夺有何特点?特别是今后的前景如何?令人关注,本文试作简略分析。
Both Gorbachev, after coming into power, and Reagan, in his second term, have respectively adjusted their foreign policies.The foothold of the Soviet policy toward the US is, on the basis of energetically pushing forward the 'acceleration' strategy and strengthening the national comprehensive power, to make preparations for a further contest with the United States in the 21st century. At present and in a quite long period to come, the Soviet foreign policy toward the United States is and will be of detente centered on arms control. In arms race, the Soviet Union is temporarily changing its guideline of the 1970s to seek superiority over the United States, into the present one to keep approximate balance at a low level with the US and allows no superiority over the Soviet Union by the US; in regional rivalry, the Soviet Union is changing its 'offensive strategy' of the 1970s into a policy of sticking to its obtained positions as its priority without provoking incidents on its own initiative.The Amarican foreign policy toward the Soviet Union is, on one hand, to further increase its economic and technological superiority over the Soviet Union and ready to ultimately defeat the Soviet Union with more powerful strength in the 21st century; and on the other, to gradually wear down the Soviet Union in arms race, to retake the positions lost in the 1970s.In the coming four or five years, the United States may be more offensive in regional contest, while the Soviet Union more offensive in disarmament. The relations between the two superpowers will not get eased much nor be overstrained.
