摘要
这是宦乡同志1985年7月27日在现代国际关系研究所发起组织的“八十年代后半期中国现代化建设的国际政治环境讨论会”上的讲话摘录,系根据记录整理,已经本人审阅。题目是我们加的。
First, how to assess contemporary situations.The international tension stems from two sides. On one side, it is felt between the two superpowers. Last year, they were on ratherbad terms, but this year has seen a few changes for the better in their relations as aresult of their efforts to go to table for negotiations. Nevertheless, this doesn't meanthat the essential conflicts existing between the two superpowers have withered away.For the U.S., it is in need of two years or two years and a half to adapt itself to SDIcost and both enomous military and welfare expenditures. Apart from this, taking generalelection of this period into consideration, the Reagan Administration may be tilted tosoftening its position to some extent towards the USSR. As for the USSR, it is also ne-cessary to think of easing tension a little temporarily and making some preparations forits own new military build-up. It is estimated that the two superpowers may reach atemporary partial compromise in their strategic arms by 1987. Of course, a contrary pos-sibility can't be kept out exclusively. On the other side, the tension may be seen as an outcome of the inner economicfrictions among the capitalist world. This trend may develop drastically, Besides theacute commercial frictions between Western Europe and the U.S., the commercial frictionsbetween Japan and the U.S. have come to a head. Since Japan's exports have done bigharms to the U.S. especially, the latter now is urging Japan to shift its course from layingemphasis on the expansion of exports to giving priority to the expansion of domesticsupplies and of military strength. The second problem is in connection with the development of world economic situa-tions. It will roughly go like this: as far as the capitalist world's economy is concern-ed, in the coming five to ten years, there won't be any possibility of prosperity, nor bigrecessions and big booms, but there may be periodic crisis and recovery as well.
