论我国对外经济贸易发展战略

On the Development Strategy of China' s Foreign Economic Relations

制订一项长期的对外经济贸易发展战略必须从我国的现实条件和世界经济形势出发。我国有哪些现实条件与此有关呢? 第一,我国是一个社会主义国家。这不但决定了我们不会走资本主义发展道路,决定了我国的计划经济体制,而且也说明,在执行开放政策时,我国的经济发展应尽可能和资本主义周期性危机绝缘。

Starting from the basic economic and geographical conditions of China (an underdeveloped large socialist country with rich resources and a huge population; vast difference in level of economic development in different areas; no unified domestic market; lack of capital; the need to insulate itself from cyclical economic fluctuations abroad), the author puts forward the following development strategy:1., An import substitution strategy in the broad sense; 2, full development of foreign trade and economic relations; 3, multi-direction trade relations instead of sticking to a few or a group of countries, The argument is supported by regression analysis using worldwide data, showing that the rate of increase of the value of our foreign trade must be kept a little lower than that of GNP; same with the rate of increase of per capita exports in relation to that of per capita GNP. The author does not agree with many economists who claim that we should raise the value of exports in proportion to GNP. Neither does he think that a high proportion of primary commodities in its exports itself is a bad thing.