摘要
飞行器研制项目具有时间周期长,研制费用高,风险大的特点,需要对项目进行整个周期内的动态综合管理。本文在Markov假设基础上,分阶段研究风险状态,并利用Monte Carlo仿真,计算出风险变化趋势。本方法利用有限的评估数据与历史数据,计算出风险转移强度,动态地评估了风险的发展变化。通过实例证明转移矩阵能够准确描述风险的发展变化且与实例情况相吻合。
The risk of aircraft research project has character of long term,high cost and risk.It is necessary to dynamically manage risk during the whole project cycle.Based on Markov assumption,risk status in every stage is analyzed and risk trend is calculated with Monte Carlo method.The limited assessment and history data are utilized farthest to calculate transfer intensity of risk and development of risk was given through dynamic analysis in this paper. The example was presented to prove that transfer matrix can describe the risk development exactly in reality.
出处
《中国管理科学》
CSSCI
2008年第S1期128-132,共5页
Chinese Journal of Management Science
基金
项目技术风险评估方法研究
