基于粗糙集与未确知模型的供应商风险评估方法研究

Research on Supplier Risk Assessment Based on Rough Set and Unascertained Measure Model

供应商是制造商材料的来源,供应商风险的发生可能导致原来井然有序的供应链无法正常运转,因此,供应商风险的预警与评估在供应链风险管理中占据着举足轻重的地位。本文提出一种基于粗糙集和未确知测度理论的供应商风险评估方法,该方法首先运用粗糙集理论对繁杂的供应商风险指标体系进行精简,并确定指标权重,然后运用未确知测度模型对供应商风险进行评估,从而使评估结果更加客观。最后在实证研究中以某汽车制造商企业供应商风险评估体系为例,阐明了该评估方法的科学有效性以及评估结果的合理性。

In recent years,supply chain risk management has attracted increasing attention.Suppliers control the resources of the materials for manufacturers,and the risk in supplier may cause abnormal operation of the supply chain and finally bring losses to manufacturers.As a result,early warning and assessment of the risk in suppliers play an important role in supply chain risk management.An approach based on rough set and unascertained measure model is proposed in this paper to assess the risks in suppliers.This approach takes advantage of the rough set theory to simplify the complicated indicator system and determine the weight,and then assess the risks in suppliers by unascertained measure model,which make the results more objective.Finally in a case study,we take an automobile manufacture as example to illustrate the validity of the approach and rationality of the assessment result.