若尔盖近55年热量资源分析

ANALYSIS OF THERMAL RESOURCE IN ZOIGE DURING THE LAST 55 YEARS

利用1957～2011年若尔盖气象观测站的逐日气温资料,分析了该地区日平均气温稳定通过0℃的初日、终日、持续日数、活动积温的年际变化,对活动积温进行突变检验。研究表明:若尔盖≥0℃的初日提前的趋势并不明显;终日呈显著延后趋势;持续日数呈明显增加趋势。活动积温变化呈十分显著的增加趋势,1997年为积温增加的突变年,1998～2011年是热量和持续日数增加幅度最大的时期。1998～2011年若尔盖≥0℃的各不同保证率对应的持续日数均大于1957～1997年对应的持续日数,即初日提前,终日推迟,活动积温也明显增加。

By using the observation data from meteorological stations in Zoige from 1957 to 2011,the changes of the initial date,final date,continuous days and the accumulated temperature above 0 ℃ in different years were analyzed.The accumulated temperature mutation test was analyzed.It was found that the initial date of the accumulated temperature above 0℃ was not obviously earlier,it's final date was obviously later and it's continuous days showed increasing trend.There was a very obvious ascending trend for the variation of annual accumulated temperature above 0℃ in Zoige from 1957 to 2011.In 1997 the annual accumulated temperature had abrupt change.The ascending trends of annual accumulated temperature above 0℃ and continuous days were most significant form1998 to 2011.Under the each accumulated frequency,continuous days above 0℃ from 1998 to 2011 were higher than that from 1957 to1997,that was,the initial date was advanced and the final date was postponed,and the accumulated temperature above 0℃ from 1998 to 2011 was higher than that from 1957 to1997.