基于生态足迹的香格里拉县生态安全趋势预测

FORECASTING ECOLOGICAL SECURITY TENDENCY OF SHANGRI-LA COUNTY BASED ON THE ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT

香格里拉县是世界自然遗产三江并流地区的核心部分,其生态安全备受世人关注。基于生态足迹模型分析了香格里拉县2002~2008年的生态足迹及生态承载力的变化过程。结果表明:该县人均生态足迹从0.549ghm2上升到0.717 ghm2,年均增加4.37%;生态承载力从0.768 8 ghm2下降到0.621 7 ghm2,年均下降2.73%。根据生态压力指数分析,2002~2004年属于生态较安全期,2005~2007年属于生态稍不安全期,从2008年起生态盈余成为生态赤字进入较不安全期。运用灰色系统方法预测了2009~2013年生态压力指数的动态变化,预测从2011年起已进入生态很不安全期,到2013年已接近生态极不安全期。说明生态安全恶化有加速的趋势,恢复和保护生态环境刻不容缓。本研究为香格里拉县可持续发展提供了依据,并实证了生态足迹模型在高山峡谷地区的应用。

Shangri-La County is core part of the world natural heritage Three Parallel Rivers region,and its ecological security has been paid much attention.The changing process of the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity based on the ecological footprint model were calculated and analyzed from2002 to 2008.The ecological footprint of per capita increased from 0.549 to 0.717 ghm2,with an annual increase rate of 4.37% in the county,while,ecology carrying capacity decreased from 0.769 to 0.622 ghm2,with an annual decline rate of 2.73%.According to ecology tension index analysis,2002~2004 years belonged to the comparably safe period,2005~2007 years belonged to a bit unsafe period,and the ecology surplus became the ecological deficit from 2008 to enter relatively unsafe period.Ecological tension index dynamic changes during 2009~2013 were forecasted by the grey system method.The ecology unsafe period from 2011 were forecasted,and the ecology extremely unsafe period near 2013 was also forecasted,indicated that the restoring and protecting ecological environment is extremely urgent.The research has provided the basis for the sustainable development of Shangri-La County,and has provided application example for the ecological footprint model in high mountains and valley region.