产能过剩对商品价格结构变化的影响

Impact of Commodity Prices Structural Change in Overcapacity

采用价格结构最可几分布的分析方法,对经济系统中商品的价格结构进行建立和分析。证明在一个经济系统中,由所有的微观商品的价格在随机状态下所形成的价格结构的分布函数是一个非线性的负指数分布。在这种分布中,低价格的商品的分布概率密度大,高价格的商品分布的概率密度小。在此基础上,通过对价格分布函数的分析,讨论了产能过剩对价格结构的演变。通缩、通胀、结构性通胀、滞胀、恶性通胀是在产能过剩的经济系统中出现的几种经济现象。针对库存商品的价格分布不同的具体情况,通过因产能过剩所形成的库存商品的价格构成分析,来对可能出现的通缩、通胀、结构性通胀、滞胀、恶性通胀这几种现象进行调整,是实现在产能过剩的经济发展过程中整体价格结构平稳的基础。

In this paper,the most probable distribution analysis method to establish the commodity price structure in economy system.Under the stochastic condition we prove all of microscopic commodity the price will form a non-linear negative exponent distribution.In this kind of distribution,the low level of price probability density is big,the high level of price commodity probability density is small We discuss price structure' s evolution in overcapacity state through to analysis price distribution function.Deflation,inflation,structural inflation,stagflation,hyperinflation appeared in several economic phenomena in the economic system of excess capacity.In view of commodity stocks price distribution in different special details and the formation of the stock composition of commodity prices in overcapacity to make an adjustment the possible of deflation,inflation,structural inflation,stagflation,hyperinflation phenomena are the foundation to realize price structure stability in the course of the overcapacity economic development.