我国经济增长率中长期演变趋势研究——基于2000-2010年国内省域面板数据的分析与预测

Research on Medium-Long Term Trend of Economic Growth Rate in China——Analysis and Forecasting on the Basis of Provincial Panel Data From 2000 to 2010

国内外学者大多通过测算我国的TFP或劳动生产率、测算我国经济的刘易斯转折点、以韩日等国家或地区的发展历程来预测我国经济增长率的演变趋势。本论文以我国各省域2000-2010年来的面板数据建模来拟合我国基于省域的从低收入到中等偏上收入阶段的GDP增长率变化轨迹,并以此模型来类比分析和预测全国的GDP增长率。本论文的研究结果表明,到2020年我国经济都将维持在10%左右的高增长率阶段,但2020年前后应该是我国经济增长的转折时期,因而经济增长率在之后出现急速下降的趋势,并在2030年左右下降到5%,进入低速均衡增长时期。

Both domestic and overseas academics forecast China' s economic growth rate mainly by measuring TFP or labor productivity,evaluating the Lews turning point,or analogizing the process of economic growth in South Korea,Japan and other countries/regions.In this paper,using provincial panel data from 2000 to 2010 for econometrics model,the author fit out the route of economic growth rate from low-income to upper medium income stage.On the basis of results in preceding model,the author analyzed and forecasted economic growth rate from 2011 to 2030 in China.As a result,the author regards that,economic growth rate will maintain at a relative high level of 10%.But at the same time,turning point of China' s economic growth may appear in period around 2020.And thus,economic growth rate will then declines sharply.The author predicts that,economic growth rate will drop to less than 5%in 2030.That means China' s economy entering the low-speed balanced growth period.