中部六省低碳发展水平测度及发展潜力分析

ON LEVELS OF LOW-CARBON DEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIALS OF SIX PROVINCES OF CENTRAL CHINA

人为的碳排放导致气候变化的加剧,低碳经济已成为人类的共识,向低能耗、低污染、低排放的低碳发展模式转型已成为世界各国可持续发展的必经之路。以我国中部六省作为研究区域,通过碳排放总量、人均碳排放量、地均碳排放量、碳生产率、碳能源排放系数等一系列指标对中部地区的低碳发展水平进行测度,对比各指标空间差异,认为中部地区目前还处于高碳发展阶段,碳排放总量大,碳生产率低,碳能源排放系数高,山西、河南尤为严重;在此基础上,采用产业-能源关联模型和能源-碳排放关联模型分析中部地区的低碳发展潜力,认为中部地区产业结构多元化水平和能源结构多元化水平低,且演化速率极其缓慢,致使碳排放增长速率无法减缓;中部地区虽然碳减排难度大,但减排潜力也大。

The anthropogenic carbon emissions aggravated the climate change,and low-carbon economy become the consensus of human.Therefore seeking low-carbon development model of low-power,low-polluting and low emissions has become the path for sustainable development around the world.This paper took six provinces of central China as a study area,measured low-carbon level of six provinces through the coefficients of carbon emissions,per capita carbon emissions,per unit of land carbon emissions,carbon productivity,carbon emission coefficient of energy and contrasted their spatial differentiation.We got the conclusions that central China is still in the high-carbon development stage.There are a large carbon emissions,low carbon productivity and high carbon emission coefficient of energy,especially in Shanxi and Henan.On this basis,by adopting industrial-energy interconnection model and energy-carbon emissions interconnection model to analyze the low carbon development potential of the central China,we realized that diversity level of industrial structure and energy structure is low,and evolution rate is also low,which makes growth rate of carbon emissions can't slow down.Howerver,despite great difficulty in carbon emission reduction,there also exist large potentials.