摘要
合理的农业结构有利于农业系统发挥更好的整体功能和效益,如何对耕地资源进行合理配置已成为众多学者研究的热点问题。利用系统动力学模型对长沙市耕地资源的变化趋势进行预测,并通过建立多目标优化模型,在综合考虑经济效益、生态效益和粮食安全的前提条件下,研究了2010年长沙市耕地资源优化配置方案。结果表明:通过优化配置,长沙市粮食作物和蔬菜的种植面积得到较大幅度的调整,粮食作物调整后面积比例为60.92%,比调整前减少2.12%;蔬菜种植调整后面积比例为21.96%,比调整前增加3.84%。结构优化配置后,化肥施用总量基本保持不变,经济效益和生态效益比优化前分别提高9.93%和2.03%,有效地促进了农业增效、农民增收。
A reasonable agricultural structure has a better effect on the efficiency and overall function of the agricultural system,thus how to distribute the arable land has become a hot research for scholars.The trend of arable land resource was simulated by a system dynamics model in this paper.Then,taking economic benefit,ecological benefit and food security into consideration,we used a multi-objective optimization model to study the optimal allocation of arable land of Changsha in 2010.Results showed that agricultural efficiency and farmers'income could be improved effectively through optimal allocation for the arable land.The proportion of vegetable area had increased 3.84%to 21.96%and the total area of crop had fallen by 2.12%.Meanwhile,economic benefit and ecological benefit had increased 9.93%and 2.03%,respectively,after optimization.
出处
《长江流域资源与环境》
CAS
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第S1期34-39,共6页
Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin
基金
"十一五"国家科技支撑计划重点项目(2007BAC16B08)
关键词
系统动力学
多目标规划
优化
耕地
长沙市
system dynamics
multiobjective programming and planning
optimization
arable land
Changsha
